Weekly update from our research partner Investsense



WHAT: Brent crude swung from nearly US$98 to well below US$90 after Trump claimed a deal with Iran had been approved.
WHY: Trump said on Monday that a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the U.S. and Iran. Markets remain cautious as neither side has released the deal text and shipping companies are delaying vessels through Hormuz until there is greater clarity.
WHAT: The RBA held rates but issued a hawkish statement, signalling inflation remains too high for comfort.
WHY: The question now is whether enough damage has already been done to lock in higher inflation and lower growth regardless. The European Central Bank hiked to 2.25% and signalled more to come, tighter for longer remains the global default outside Australia.
WHAT: Japan's equity market sits near all-time highs as the Bank of Japan prepares to lift rates to 1% for the first time since 1995.
WHY: Government spending across 17 strategic sectors and a coordinated energy response have the market buying the Japan story. Japanese equities have led developed markets up roughly 6%.
WHAT: US headline CPI rose to a three-year high of 4.2%, while core came in at 0.2% for the month.
WHY: Producer prices and underlying consumption inflation tell a hotter story. Kevin Warsh chairs his first Federal Reserve meeting this week with markets pricing 23 basis points of further tightening by year-end.
WHAT: SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, raising US$75 billion at US$135 and closing Friday up 19% at US$161, briefly valuing it above US$2 trillion.
WHY: On Bloomberg Surveillance, veteran Jim Chanos flagged that the stock trades on roughly 110x revenue and has just pivoted to a lower-margin cloud leasing model, a trend we are seeing with some of the other hyper scalers. This begs the question why are they selling compute to other companies if it is so scarce?
Listen to the Investsense podcast for weekly updates:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-investsense-podcast/id1497076117
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3xR4Vjn77KBpVOj2N15r1p
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