Weekly update from our research partner Investsense



WHAT: The RBA hiked to 4.35% this afternoon, taking rates back to where they were a year ago.
WHY: The board cited higher fuel prices and early signs of second-round inflation effects, warning underlying inflation will peak at 3.8% in the June quarter. Growth forecasts were cut sharply, with GDP now expected at just 1.3% in 2026, and those baseline forecasts assume oil averages US$100, well below today's US$114.
WHAT: April was an extraordinary month for equities, with US indices closing at fresh all-time highs.
WHY: The Nasdaq surged 16.3% and the S&P 500 added 10.8% over the month, the latter's fifth consecutive weekly gain carrying it back above its pre-war level. The rally was driven by a strong earnings season and the stealth liquidity dynamic Andrew Hunt outlined last week.
WHAT: Then Sunday happened. Iran launched missiles and drones against the UAE, striking the Fujairah pipeline that carries 1.8 million barrels per day of UAE crude.
WHY: The extent of damage to the pipeline infrastructure remains unknown. Brent jumped 4.7% to US$113, Polymarket now prices only a 20% chance of the Strait reopening by end of May, and US equities pulled back from their record highs.
WHAT: The gap between oil futures and physical crude prices signals markets are yet to price the full supply shock.
WHY: Before Sunday's strike, physical barrels of Gulf-grade crude were already trading at US$140-150, far above the US$108 Brent futures price, a gap that reflects the market's faith in a resolution that has not materialised. Fuel rationing is already under way across parts of Asia, and half of global refining capacity depends on Gulf supply.
Listen to the Investsense podcast for weekly updates:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-investsense-podcast/id1497076117
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3xR4Vjn77KBpVOj2N15r1p
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