Budget 2020 – Boosting the Economy

8 October 2020

The Federal Budget is wide ranging to cushion the impact of Covid-19 and kickstart the economic recovery. The treasurer said it is focused on “boosting consumer and business confidence, growing the economy and creating jobs.” 


The Federal Government will run a budget deficit of $213.7 billion with total debt peaking at $966 billion by 2024 as it spends on a range of programs and incentives designed to rescue the Australian economy from its worst downturn since the Great Depression.


Instead of bringing the budget back “into the black”, the 2020/21 budget will take net government debt to $703 billion or 36 percent of GDP this year, and to 44 percent by 2024. This is half of that of the UK, a third of the debt of the US and a quarter that of Japan.


There is no indication on how the Government plans to fund this expenditure and ultimately repair the budget. This will happen when unemployment falls below 6%. The government forecasts a 3.75 percent contraction in the economy this calendar year, but a return to 4.25 per cent growth next year, with unemployment to fall to 6.5 percent by the June Quarter of 2022.


In additional to the incentives below, the government is spending big on infrastructure - $14 billion in new and accelerated infrastructure projects across Australia over the next four years.


Individuals

Reduction in tax rates

The government’s strategy is to put money in your pocket in the hope you will boost spending and lift the economy out of recession. The already legislated tax cuts will be brought forward from1 July 2022 to 1 July 2020.

The Government has also announced that the legislated increase to the Low Income Tax Offset (LITO) from $445 to $700 per year will be brought forward to 1 July 2020 instead of 1 July 2022.



While the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO) was due to be removed with commencement of Stage Two of the Personal Income Tax Plan from 1 July 2022, the Government announced that it will continue as a one-off additional benefit during the 2020-21 tax year.


Rate (%) Income Range ($) - Current from 1 July 2018 Income Range ($) - Proposed from 1 July 2020 Income Range ($) - Proposed from 1 July 2024
Tax Free 0 - 18,200 0 - 18,200 0 - 18,200
19 18,201 - 37,000 18,201 - 45,000 18,201 - 45,000
30 45,001 - 200,000
32.5 37,001 - 90,000 45,001 - 120,000
37 90,001 - 180,000 120,001 - 180,000
45 > 180,000 > 180,000 > 200,000

Capital Gains Tax removed for granny flats

The government announced it will provide a Capital Gains Tax (CGT) exemption for granny flat arrangements where there is a formal written agreement for a family member to reside on the relevant property (either in the same home or a separate building). The exemption will apply to arrangements with older Australians or those with a disability. This could commence as early as 1 July 2021.


Superannuation reform

The Government has announced that it will implement the following reforms from 1 July 2021 to improve outcomes for superannuation account holders:

  • new online YourSuper tool to compare and select superannuation products
  • existing superannuation accounts will be ‘stapled’ to a member so they keep their superannuation account when changing jobs
  • MySuper products will be subject to an annual performance test. Funds that underperform for two consecutive years will not be permitted to accept new members until their performance improves; and


Business

Business Support Grants exempt from income tax

The government announced that it will ensure that Victorian Government business support grants for small and medium businesses will be non-assessable-non-exempt income for income tax purposes. This will extent to all States and Territories on an application basis. Eligibility will be limited to grants announced on or after 13 September 2020 and for payments made between 13 September 2020 and 30 June 2021.


Jobmaker Hiring Credit

The JobMaker Hiring Credit will be payable for up to 12 months for each new job and is available from 7 October 2020 to employers who hire eligible employees aged 16-35. To be eligible, employers must firstly demonstrate that the new employee will increase the overall employee headcount and payroll, using total headcount on 30 September 2020, and total payroll in the three months to 30 September 2020 as the base line. Special rules apply to newly established businesses and businesses with no employees at the reference date.

The Hiring Credit will be paid quarterly in arrears at the rate of $200 per week for those aged between 16-29, and $100 per week for those aged between 30-35. Eligible employees are required to work a minimum of 20 hours per week. The credit will be available to most eligible employers regardless of size (with some exceptions, most notably any employer who is claiming the JobKeeper Payment), and there is no fall in turnover requirement to be satisfied.

Treasury estimates that this will support around 450,000 jobs for young people


More support for apprentices or trainees

From 5 October 2020 to 30 September 2021, businesses who take on a new apprentice or trainee will be eligible for a 50 per cent wage subsidy of up to $7,000 per quarter, regardless of geographic location, occupation, industry or business size. This assistance will aim to support 100,000 new apprentices across Australia, and is in addition to the Supporting Apprentices and Trainees wage subsidy (announced as part of the COVID-19 stimulus package) which is helping small and medium businesses to keep their apprentices and trainees in work and training.


Extended instant asset write off

The instant asset write-off is temporarily extended and being made even more generous. From 7:30pm (AEDT) on 6 October 2020 until 30 June 2022, businesses with turnover up to $5 billion will be able to deduct the full cost of eligible depreciable assets of any value in the year they are installed. The cost of improvements to existing eligible depreciable assets made during this period can also be fully deducted.


Aggregated annual turnover less than $5 billion Aggregated annual turnover less than $50 million
Tax Deduction Full cost of eligible capital assets in the year of first use for new depreciable assets and the cost of improvements to existing eligible assets. Full cost of eligible capital assets in the year of first use for new or second-hand depreciable assets and the cost of improvements to existing eligible assets.
Acquired From 7:30pm AEDT on 6th October 2020 7:30pm AEDT on 6th October 2020
First used or installed by 30th June 2022 30th June 2022

Small business loss carry back

Companies with turnover up to $5 billion will be allowed to offset losses against previous profits on which tax has been paid, to generate a refund. Eligible companies can carry back tax losses from the 2019-20, 2020-21 or 2021-22 income years to offset previously taxed profits in 2018-19 or later income years. Companies may elect to receive a tax refund when they lodge their 2020-21 and 2021-22 tax returns.

A company will be able to obtain a refundable tax offset (i.e. cash-back) in a loss year against previously taxed profits, subject to satisfying certain conditions. The offset is uncapped, however the amount carried back cannot be more than the earlier taxed profits and the carry back cannot generate a franking account deficit.

These losses may be created by other measures announced in the Budget including, for example, the new and improved instant asset write-off. There is, however, a one year delay in accessing the cash refunds, with eligible companies only able to receive a tax refund when they lodge their 2020-21 and 2021-22 tax returns.


Expanded small business tax concessions

Amendments will allow businesses with less than $50M aggregated annual turnover (up from $10M) to access up to 10 small business concessions.


For the first time, businesses with an aggregated annual turnover between $10 million and $50 million will have access to up to ten small business tax concessions. The changes are estimated to support an additional 20,000 businesses and their employees.


The expanded concessions, as part of the 2020-21 Budget will apply in three phases:

  • From 1 July 2020, eligible businesses will be able to immediately deduct certain start-up expenses and certain prepaid expenditure.
  • From 1 April 2021, eligible businesses will be exempt from the 47 per cent fringe benefits tax on car parking and multiple work-related portable electronic devices, such as phones or laptops, provided to employees.
  • From 1 July 2021, eligible businesses will be able to access the simplified trading stock rules, remit pay as you go (PAYG) instalments based on GDP adjusted notional tax, and settle excise duty and excise-equivalent customs duty monthly on eligible goods. Eligible businesses will also have a two-year amendment period apply to income tax assessments for income years starting from 1 July 2021.


This budget is a confidence booster and is designed to get the country moving again. It does lack in some longer term strategy or vision and there is little to support the reinvention or reimagination of business. The budget though, will be the kick start the economy is looking for. If you have any questions about the budget, please give Mulcahy & Co a call to discuss your situation.


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Behavioural Finance when investing
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Starting From Scratch - Week 3: Behavioural Finance Watch the video on this page or listen to the podcast on our website, on Spotify or on Apple Podcasts. Listen to the full episode on the FS360 podcast . In the first two weeks of this series we covered the technical side of investing: the different ways to invest (direct shares, ETFs and managed funds), then risk versus return and the main asset classes. This week is about the human side. Even with the right knowledge and a well-built portfolio, the thing that most often derails investors isn't a lack of information. It's emotion. That's what behavioural finance is about: understanding the psychological influences behind our decisions to buy, sell or sit still. And one of the biggest things a financial planner can do for a client is simply keep them in check when emotions start to drive their money decisions. So, what is a bias? A bias is a mental shortcut. It feels logical in the moment, but over time it can lead to poor decisions. Traditional investment theory assumes we're all perfectly rational. We're not. Even the share market itself can be an irrational place. Take a large company that reports earnings slightly below expectations. The share price can fall several percent on the day, even though the underlying value of the business hasn't really changed. Plenty of investors sell on emotion rather than on the numbers. Here are the biases that matter most for people just starting out. Loss aversion: why a 10% fall hurts more than a 10% gain feels good Most of us feel losses more strongly than gains of the same size. It traces back to our fight-or-flight wiring: our first instinct is to avoid danger, and only then to chase reward. In investing, that often shows up as selling during a downturn just to stop the discomfort. We've seen it through the dot-com crash, the GFC, COVID and more recent geopolitical shocks. The trouble is that selling can lock in the loss, and it often leads to risk aversion as well. Having been burnt once, people become reluctant to go near growth assets again. Over 30 years, the gap between someone who stays invested and someone who keeps stepping out of the market is stark. Every time you sell and re-enter, you interrupt the compounding that does the heavy lifting. Recency bias: assuming the recent past will continue This one comes up all the time, and it can apply to nearly anything. Over the past 20 years, the top-performing asset class has very rarely been the same two years running. Last year's winner is not a forecast. The fix is simple, if not always easy: zoom out. You're probably investing for decades, so look at a longer sample than the last year or two. Confirmation bias: finding the evidence we like Almost everyone is guilty of this one if they're honest. Once we've decided something is a good idea, we go looking for reasons to back ourselves up and quietly ignore anything that suggests otherwise. A good antidote is to throw rocks at your idea. Write a list of reasons why you shouldn't do it. If the idea still stands up, that's a good sign. If it crumbles, you've just avoided an expensive mistake. Overconfidence: when an easy win goes to our head Recency bias, confirmation bias and overconfidence are really two pages of the same book. An easy win (a property that rose in value, a share that took off) makes us feel skilled when the market may have done most of the work. We then repeat the approach, seek out information that supports it, and take on more risk than we should. The flip side matters too. Someone who's been burnt before can lose all confidence, and doing nothing can be just as risky as doing too much. Herd mentality and FOMO "Everyone's doing it. Everyone seems to be making money. I'd better jump in before I miss out." That's herd mentality feeding fear of missing out, and social media has turned the volume up. Afterpay and Bitcoin are good examples. Both delivered extraordinary growth for a time, and plenty of people jumped in simply because they were so popular. But the herd doesn't know your goals or your timeframe, and by the time something is everywhere in the news, the best of the growth may already be behind it. Blindly trusting what others are doing, without doing your own research, is arguably one of the riskiest things you can do. Biases aren't always the enemy One of the most useful things to understand is that these biases aren't always bad. Take someone with $80,000 sitting in the bank for a house deposit. Their loss aversion is working in their favour, because a 10% fall in a growth asset could leave them short at settlement. For money you'll need in a year or two, the bank account may be exactly the right place for it. This ties back to Week 2. The same person might hold a superannuation balance invested for growth over decades, while their house deposit sits in cash. Different timeframes call for different strategies. Which is why the most important question isn't what to invest in. It's what you're investing for. How to keep your biases in check There's no way to switch your biases off. We're all human. But you can limit the damage. Build awareness. If you don't know these biases exist, it's hard to do anything about them. Learning to recognise them is step one, ideally before you start investing. Understand the why. Knowing which bias is at play helps you pause before acting. Challenge your own idea. Write the "why shouldn't I?" list. Throw the rocks. Match the money to the goal. Be clear on your timeframe before you invest a dollar. Put some systems in place. Research, automate your investing and diversify so no single call can do too much damage. Get an independent sounding board. Someone with no emotional skin in the game will naturally play devil's advocate better than you can. The last piece of advice: get a second opinion. Even a third or a fourth. Why this matters when you're starting out When your balance is $30,000 or $40,000, a few poor decisions might not feel like a big deal. But over 30 years, the difference between a good call and a bad one is huge. One way to make it tangible: the right decisions at 30 could be the difference between flying business class and flying economy in retirement. Jargon buster Behavioural finance: the study of how psychology and emotions influence financial decisions. Bias: a mental shortcut that feels logical but can lead to poor decisions. Loss aversion: feeling losses more strongly than equivalent gains. Risk aversion: avoiding risk, even when some risk is needed to meet your goals. Recency bias: giving too much weight to recent events. Confirmation bias: seeking information that supports what you already believe. Overconfidence bias: believing your knowledge or ability is greater than it really is. Herd mentality: following the crowd rather than making an independent decision. FOMO: fear of missing out. Homework for the week Write down one or two biases you think you show. They don't have to be about money. Next week What does it actually cost to invest? Brokerage, platform administration fees, investment costs and super fees, and how to compare a platform with a broker account. ------- Mentioned in the episode is Danny Archer's previous episodes on Behavioural Finance - these can be listened to on Apple, Spotify or here on our website - they are Episodes 58 and 61 of the FS360 Podcast by M Group. This article contains general information only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Speak to a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
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